A.J. Hinchs commitment, Eduardo Rodriguezs future and the Tigers path ahead

DETROIT — A.J. Hinch has now completed three seasons as manager of the Detroit Tigers. As Hinch might say, that’s a long time in manager years. But here Hinch was Monday morning, sharing a stage with baseball operations president Scott Harris and talking as boldly about the future as ever.

Hinch’s tenure in Detroit, the job he took after a well-publicized suspension, has seen plenty of ups and downs. His first year was full of progress and hope. The second year, after the Tigers spent money in the offseason and aimed to win, was a colossal failure across the organization. General manager Al Avila was fired, and Hinch is now working for a new front office. This season started with familiar difficulties and sloppy play. But much like 2021, it ended with 78 wins, a bundle of positive developments and an underlying sense of hope.

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So three years in, how committed is Hinch to Detroit?

“I’ve never been more encouraged to be here, to be the manager,” Hinch said. “I know these are not easy jobs to get. They’re not easy jobs to keep. And I’m especially proud of where we’re getting to with our players to where they understand me at a deeper level.”

Because of Hinch’s status as a World Series-winning manager with the Astros, there has always been outside speculation that perhaps Detroit was merely a rehab assignment, that maybe he’d bolt for another job with a contending team as soon as there was an opening. Hinch, though, has never actually given off that vibe. He took this job for a reason, and he’s not one to leave a job unfinished.

“When it comes to being the Detroit Tigers’ manager, I’m thrilled and proud,” Hinch said. “I’m honored. And I know I have a lot of expectations on me to do my part to be better. We’re not where we want to get to. We’re trying to get there as fast as possible. I hope that our fans, our front office, our ownership, understand the positive step forward that we took on the field this year. Very important. I wouldn’t want to be anywhere else.”

The situation in Detroit has not gotten off the ground as quickly as Hinch and so many others would have liked. A rebuild centered on pitching tanked. Everything had to be revamped. But might the Tigers be rising from the rubble? Hinch said working for Harris made it feel like his first year on the job.

Let’s be clear: The Tigers have a lot of work still to do. There is much pressure riding on the backs of young hitters. Talk of playoffs in 2024 is premature and rests on the assumption the AL Central will again be baseball’s weakest division. But Monday morning inside Comerica Park’s Tiger Club, there was a convincing sense of optimism.

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“The conversation about this organization has changed dramatically in 12 months,” Harris said. “When I was sitting here a year ago, we were talking about this organization in a very different light.”

And if anything supported the idea the Tigers are on stable ground, it was the manager riffing with his boss as the two sat on opposite sides of a small table, speaking into microphones and touting the progress the organization made in 2023.

“It’s been a great first year between us,” Harris said. “I can confidently say that he has made me better. I am much better at this job now after the relationship that I’ve had with him, after the challenging conversations that we’ve had before and after every game, after the moments in which he challenged me to think differently about our team, differently about ways to get better … I’d like to say that I made him better too. He’ll never admit it.”

“Ok, I’ll do it, fine,” Hinch said playfully. “He made me better.”

Harris continued.

“There are a lot of things to be proud of in this organization,” he said. “And I am very proud that we have the right field general leading our team right now.”

The plan ahead

What else did we learn from the Hinch-and-Harris postmortem presser? Well, there was a lot to digest. Let’s start with the topic on everyone’s minds: How active will the Tigers be in free agency? How much will they spend? What might next year’s roster look like?

“When I wake up in the morning, the reason why I’m really excited about this organization is we have young talent coming,” Harris said. “We have young talent that’s already in the big leagues and we have more young talent coming up. I’m really bullish on this, on these young guys. So anything we do this offseason in free agency or trade, we’re going to have to be mindful of walking the line in between finding outside additions that can help us without blocking some of the young talent that may prove to be the best solutions we can find at those positions.”

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The translation here: The Tigers probably aren’t going to spend much this winter. Next year’s payroll — with Miguel Cabrera’s $32 million salary finally off the books — could be ludicrously low. But — and I know it’s a hard sell — if the Tigers don’t spend, it’s not necessarily because they’re being cheap. Go look at the list of this winter’s free-agent class. Outside of Shohei Ohtani, it’s not a thrilling list. Aside from third baseman Matt Chapman, it’s an especially weak class for position players.

So if the Tigers don’t spend, Harris intimated, it’s less about money and more about being smart. The best way to build the organization, Harris appears to believe, is going to be through developing in-house talent.

“I understand that there’s going to be a lot of questions about the payroll number, spending resources, all that,” Harris said. “Respectfully, I don’t think that’s necessarily the right question here. I feel like we have plenty of resources. We’ve had plenty of flexibility. For me, the question is, what’s the path to contention?

“Rewind several months ago, I was sitting here and I was talking about the path to contention involves stacking as many good baseball decisions as we possibly can. That hasn’t changed. The quicker we’re going to do that, the quicker we’re going to be an annual contender in this division. When I think about the offseason, I think it’s important to remind ourselves that there aren’t any shortcuts to contention.”

Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter might just have emerged as a formidable middle-of-the-order core. Jake Rogers had a terrific year at catcher. Colt Keith, Justyn-Henry Malloy and Jace Jung could be the next wave of hitters to make an impact in the majors.

“The recent history in this game will tell you that some organizations have either overestimated their proximity to contention, or they have tried to take a shortcut to contention by spending heavily in free agency,” Harris said. “And it hasn’t worked. It hasn’t pushed them forward. And in fact, in some cases it set them back. And so when I think about what we’re doing here in this organization, we can spend to complement a core. We can’t spend to build a core.”

The biggest thing to keep an eye on over the coming winter might be the trade market. The Tigers don’t have a glaringly obvious trade candidate, but they do have some options to consider. Tarik Skubal, good as he is, might be the lone way the Tigers could trade for an impact bat. They have a surplus of left-handed outfielders, perhaps making someone such as Akil Baddoo shoppable to other teams. Leverage relievers such as Alex Lange and Jason Foley will always be in demand.

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It will be up to Harris to get creative in finding a deal that actually makes the Tigers better. But if Detroit makes any sort of significant upgrade this offseason, I get the sense it’s more likely to come via trade than free agency.

“I need to certainly do all our work with our front office on our evaluations in free agency, figure out which opportunities actually fit us,” Harris said. “And then also prepare ourselves to be opportunistic in trades. The trade market is very difficult to forecast because you don’t know what the 29 other teams are doing. But right now, this month is going to be important for us to position ourselves to identify opportunities to get better via trade and make sure that we’re prepared to press the button when we see something we like.”

Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Báez both have decisions to make. Both players can opt out of their contracts this offseason. The decision deadline is specified in individual contracts but is generally within five days after the conclusion of the World Series.

Harris talked about both players in the same answer during the press conference, but to be clear, they are very different situations.

Báez is not going to opt out, pending a surprise decision that would be greatly harmful to his net worth. The Tigers are expecting Báez to be back. They are, once again, going to search for ways to help him this offseason. 

“We haven’t gotten the best version out of Javy,” Harris said. “We have to do that this offseason. We have some things we’re going to share with him in the exit interview. And we have some new ways we feel like we can support him this offseason, but it’s going to take organizational effort in Javy.”

As for Rodriguez? No one seems quite sure what to expect. Rodriguez could choose not to opt out and still make $49 million over the next three years with the Tigers. That is not chump change. But conventional wisdom — and even a cursory report from insider Jon Heyman — indicates Rodriguez will likely opt out and test the free-agent waters.

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Harris said Monday the Tigers aren’t having any sort of pre-emptive contract discussions with Rodriguez or his reps. 

“The way (the Rodriguez and Báez contracts) are structured, they have a decision to make,” Harris said. “We don’t have a decision to make as an organization. … We don’t anticipate any conversations prior to their decision. There haven’t been any, and I don’t plan on having any between now and those decisions.”

The rest of the pitching

That does present an interesting question: If Rodriguez opts out, would the Tigers pursue another front-line starter in free agency? If there’s any scenario in which the Tigers spend, I think it’s this. Other pitchers such as Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Lucas Giolito and Sonny Gray will be on the market. 

Harris on Monday didn’t seem ready to list positions he’s focused on upgrading this winter. Given the Tigers’ young hitters close to the big leagues, it might make sense to focus on pitchers via free agency.

But let’s not forget the Tigers also feel pretty good about their in-house depth. Skubal, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Reese Olson, Sawyer Gipson-Long, Joey Wentz and Beau Brieske are all either rotation locks or guys who will compete for a job this spring. Jackson Jobe could be knocking on the door of the majors next year. Keider Montero and Ty Madden are solid options on the farm, too.

“I can’t speculate with Eduardo,” Harris said. “He’s put up a great year. We just have to make the decisions that are actually in front of us, and that one just isn’t right now. As far as the offseason, we have another month that we are going to use. I’m going to be back in the office right after this press conference.”

There is one more pitcher we haven’t mentioned yet. His name is Spencer Turnbull. The man of no-hitter fame, the right-hander who had a 2.88 ERA over 50 innings in 2021, had quite the odd year. There was the back-and-forth with the club, when he was optioned to Triple-A Toledo despite claiming he was injured. Turnbull ended up going on the 60-day IL with what seemed like a serious neck injury. He rehabbed but struggled and was thus optioned again at the conclusion of his rehab assignment. Then Turnbull missed multiple outings with what he described as a cracked toenail. He finally pitched two games in Toledo and allowed two earned runs and four walks in 4 2/3 innings.

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Turnbull’s relationship with the club was strained. That was no secret. But even though things went awry, would the Tigers really non-tender a pitcher with Turnbull’s talent?

Harris’ answer seemed to be a conclusive no.

“We are going to have an exit interview with Spencer and we expect him to prepare as a starter this offseason and show up to Lakeland ready to compete for a job in our rotation,” Harris said. “You guys heard me talk many times about how talented Spencer is. We’ve seen flashes of it in this organization of what he can do. And we’ve got to find a way to get the best version out of Spencer. It starts with reflecting on the season and then planning for the offseason and making sure he shows up and is ready to compete for a job.”

What’s next for Austin Meadows?

Austin Meadows is another difficult situation the Tigers face this winter. Meadows has played 42 games over the past two years after going on the injured list with anxiety. Meadows spent most of this year away from the team, with his family in Florida.

The Tigers have been publicly supportive of Meadows and preached the importance of mental health. But now comes the business reality: Meadows made $4.3 million this year and is eligible for arbitration this winter. He has hardly played the past two years.

“I haven’t talked to Austin in a few months,” Harris said. “I need to talk to Austin in October. We’re going to talk to him, and we’re going to explore what the path forward is. I don’t have any answers on that. I hope he’s doing well. I got to reconnect with him, and that’s going to be a priority for us in October.”

If the Tigers do end up non-tendering Meadows, perhaps they could tell him he’s welcome back on a minor-league deal.

Worth noting

• The Tigers haven’t made a decision on whether to bring back catcher Carson Kelly. The Tigers signed Kelly after the Diamondbacks DFA’d him in August. He joined the team with a $3.5 million club option for next season. The Tigers wanted to see if they could help Kelly get back to his 2019 form, when he hit 18 home runs. In only 52 at-bats with the Tigers, Kelly was a solid enough backup catcher but hit a lackluster .173. “It’s very much an open decision or open question for us,” Harris said. “We’re gonna spend a lot of time on it.”
• A.J. Hinch basically said he is not sure whether there will be any changes to his coaching staff this winter. But the fact Hinch left the door open for speculation indicates some level of change might be coming. Bench coach George Lombard could interview for managerial jobs, though opposing teams have not yet contacted the Tigers about Lombard. Other additions or subtractions could always be in the works. “We’re going to do a full evaluation, talk about it,” Hinch said. “I’m happy with the group, but I’m also always the guy that wants to uncover, ‘Can we be 5 percent better? Could we be 10 percent better?’ And who those coaches are, it’s going to be determined as we go.”
• Harris listed off a number of infrastructure upgrades the Tigers have planned. Among them: Phase 2 of the Tigers’ renovation to the major-league clubhouse and performance center, a plot of land that will be the site of a new Dominican academy, a new player dorm in Lakeland with “development features,” a covered field, new cages and new mounds in Lakeland, a new team plane with “best-in-class” features for comfort and recovery and “significant investments in technological improvements up and down the organization.”
• Here’s one more feel-good quote from Harris, on Miguel Cabrera’s final game: “That was Miggy at his best. That was A.J. at his best. That was this organization at its best, and that was the city at its best. And it made me feel really good after a long season.”

(Top photo of Hinch: Jaime Crawford / Getty Images)

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